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Page 2 of 3
What about an unsuitable race? In this writers opinion, an unsuitable race fits the following criteria:
- Too close to the off.
- A large field with a clear, short priced favourite and long priced outsider. (although this could be looked at differently as we'll see in a minute)
For instance, in the following market the book is below 100% but only just. Also, we need to use minimum stakes of £2 on the outsider so our working stake will be £2 / 0.143 = £1400. For a possible return of £7.74. Not worth it. Too risky.
Again, to work out the individual stake, divide the working stake by the price. So for runner A below the individual stake = £1400/2.5 = £560
| Selection |
Price |
Implied Probability |
Stakes |
| Runner A |
2.5 |
40.0% |
£560.00 |
Runner B
|
7 |
14.3% |
£200.00 |
Runner C
|
7.4 |
13.5% |
£189.19 |
Runner D
|
7.8 |
12.8% |
£179.49 |
| Runner E |
15 |
6.7% |
£93.33 |
Runner F
|
36 |
2.8% |
£38.89 |
Runner G
|
40 |
2.5% |
£35.00 |
Runner H
|
70 |
1.4% |
£20.00 |
Runner I
|
90 |
1.1% |
£15.56 |
Runner J
|
95 |
1.1% |
£14.74 |
Runner K
|
150 |
0.7% |
£9.33 |
Runner L
|
180 |
0.6% |
£7.78 |
Runner M
|
190 |
0.5% |
£7.37 |
Runner N
|
250 |
0.4% |
£5.60 |
Runner O
|
250 |
0.4% |
£5.60 |
Runner P
|
690 |
0.14% |
£2.03 |
Runner Q
|
220 |
0.5% |
£6.36 |
Runner R
|
700 |
0.143% |
£2.00 |
| |
Total |
99.4% |
£1392.26 |
As described near the beginning of this article, one thing to consider in a market such as this one is to not dutch the entire field. If you dutch only those selections priced under 8 for example, you will find that your return on investment promises to be much better. But you take the risk of a runner that you didn't include romping home first!
In the example above, if we had done this the figures would have worked out as follows for a target profit of £20:
The top four have a combined book of 80.62%. Our working 'margin' is now 19.38%. So, our 'working stake' will be £20/0.1938 = £103.20. Divide this figure by the price we want and you get your individual stakes:
| Selection |
Price |
Implied Probability |
Stake |
P&L |
| Runner A |
2.5 |
40.0% |
£41.28 |
£20.00 |
| Runner C |
7 |
14.3% |
£14.74 |
£20.00 |
| Runner D |
7.4 |
13.5% |
£13.95 |
£20.00 |
| Runner E |
7.8 |
12.8% |
£13.23 |
£20.00 |
| Runner G |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner H |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner I |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner J |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner K |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner L |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner M |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner N |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner O |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner P |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner Q |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
| Runner R |
|
|
|
-£83.20 |
So, now if any of the top four win, we win £20. But if any other runner wins we LOSE £83.20! You have to judge how confident you are that non of the other runners will win!
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