Dutching part 2.

In the following illustration we are looking at the 15:05 at Newmarket on the 13th October. You can see we are backing the first five in the field excluding some of the outsiders with a stake of around £100. Based upon the prices available in the market we will make around £27 if any of the top five horses win the race, but we would lose £100 if any of the remaining horses romped home. As it happened “Portrayal” came home first and we won £27.14. Not only that but we actually managed to capture the all first three past the post with this bet. The reason for the £27 profit is that we are creating an under round book of 78.7%. By excluding certain horses from the field we have created a margin between the full book, which would be priced over 100%, and what we believe are reasonable selections for this race.

Click on image to enlarge

The calculation to perform dutching is similar to that of bookmaking. The implied chance of La Persiana is 1/3.80 or 26.32%. If we add up the implied chances of all out runners it equals 78.7%. Therefore if we wanted to stake £100 on this race our stake on ‘La Persiana’ will be our total stake multiplied by the implied chance divided by the total implied chance for our selections. Or £100*.2632/.787 = £33.45. Sounds confusing, it is. Trying to do this without the aid of a calculator or spreadsheet is a laborious process. Thank fully there are plenty of free calculators available on the Internet. If you visit the racing ahead web site www.racingahead.net, follow the Bet Angel link. Contained on that link is a spreadsheet that we have created for you that you can download and use if you wish.